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Physical Description: Very
large pitcher's frame. Wide, mature upper body and filled-out
lower half. Looks all of his listed height and weight.
Below-average athlete. Height is imposing on the mound. Body
will need maintenance and bears watching as he matures; has had
problems maintaining his conditioning and conditioning seems to
have backed up in 2022. How his body develops will depend on how
much work he puts in off the field.
Mechanics:
Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. Starts on the first base
side from the wind-up. Medium-effort delivery. Utilizes a high
leg lift and is upright and stiff. Arm action includes a stab
behind. Hides the ball briefly when he brings it behind his back
and then again behind his head as he comes forward. Delivery is
inconsistent and has gotten stiffer as his athleticism and
coordination have regressed. Has trouble getting his arm in sync
with the rest of his delivery. Has a tendency to open up his
front side early while his arm lags behind and comes through
late. When his arm is out ahead, he will miss up to the glove
side; when it drags behind, tends to miss arm-side.
Fastball: Sits 89-92 mph. Tops out at 94 mph.
In the past, would come out at 92-94 mph and settle in after an
inning or two at 90-92, but in 2022, velocity has been down and
mostly pitched at 89-92. Prior to his Tommy John surgery, would
sit 92-94 mph and could dial it up to the 94-96 mph range. Still
needs to show the ability to hold velocity deeper into games.
Even at diminished velocity, pitch showed swing-and-miss
potential when commanded in the low minors, but that hasn’t
translated since he reached Double-A. Has struggled with command
and as a result given up a lot more contact against advanced
hitters. Potential to develop into a fringe-average offering
with refined command.
Curveball: 76-80
mph. 1-to-7 shape. At its best, shows depth and late finish.
Feel comes and goes. When he has it working, can either throw in
the zone or bury down and out of the zone to induce swinging
strikes. At its best, pre-surgery, pitch showed plus potential,
but feel and consistency have not returned. Now projects as an
average-to-better offering.
Changeup:
79-82 mph. Throws with deceptive arm speed the majority of the
time. Shows late drop. Has shown the ability to pull the string
on it and serves as an effective pitch against righties, to whom
he almost exclusively throws it. Has improved and now shows as
much or more potential than curveball. Did not throw much in
high school or in 2016. Began to incorporate it more in 2017 as
a work-in-progress as he tried to develop feel. Since return
from surgery, pitch has steadily improved and he has shown more
feel for it. Potential average offering at best.
Slider: 85-87 mph. Short, horizontal movement. Became
more comfortable with it during the 2021 season. Inconsistent
shape and feel. Has shown a willingness to throw it to both
right- and left-handed hitters. First threw the pitch at 2020
Fall Instructional League; pitch has come a long way since then
but is still a work in progress. Potential below-average
offering.
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Career Notes: Was ranked by some outlets as the
top talent in the 2016 draft class, but fell due to signability
and makeup concerns. Transferred to IMG Academy in Florida for
his junior season but returned to Barnegat High in New Jersey as
a senior. Was later retroactively suspended for an improper
transfer, causing his team to forfeit two games. Committed to
Vanderbilt initially, but commitment changed to Chipola (Fla.)
Junior College the week of the draft. Conflicting reports said
either Vanderbilt pulled his offer or Groome recommitted to
potentially allow him to re-enter the draft in 2017; with
SoxProspects sources unanimously confirming the former.
Reportedly agreed to a pre-draft deal with the San Diego Padres
at picks 24 and 25, but Red Sox selected him anyway and signed
him for $457,200 over slot. Entered 2017 as a consensus top 50
prospect. Red Sox were reportedly unhappy with his conditioning
entering 2017 Spring Training. Suffered an intercostal strain
during his first start of the 2017 season, causing him to miss
two months, then was shut down in mid-August 2017 with forearm
soreness. Worked out with Chris Sale in Ft. Myers during the
2017-18 offseason. Entered 2018 as a top 100 prospect. Was
injured in first spring training start in 2018, leading to May
2018 Tommy John surgery. Returned in August 2019 with a
slimmed-down physique, although he had visibly filled back out
in 2020. Pitched at the Alternate Training Site in 2020 against
much older hitters. Participated in 2016 and 2020 Fall
Instructional League. Was added to the 40-man roster during the
2020-21 offseason to protect him from selection in the Rule 5
Draft. Missed three weeks in July 2021 for birth of his
daughter, a break seemingly at least in part planned to keep his
innings down in the first healthy season of his career.
Participated in the Fall Performance Program in 2021.
Summation: Potential up-and-down depth starter.
Ceiling of a number five starter. Loss of stuff after return
from Tommy
John surgery and missed development time have drastically
changed his projection since he entered the system. Stuff has
never returned to pre-surgery levels. Arsenal now includes four
pitches that he is comfortable using, all in the 45-55 range.
Lacks a potential plus pitch. Now a sum-of-all-parts pitcher who
will need to be able to command all his offerings and mix them
to be effective. Command has been inconsistent in 2022, and as a
result, has struggled to consistently miss bats, leading to a
lot more hard contact. Conditioning will always be a question as
well.
Links
Jay Groome video from Lowell (9.2.16)
Scouting Scratch (9.8.16)
Scouting Scratch (9.29.16)
Notes from the Field (3.29.17)
Scouting Scratch - Jay Groome (7.5.17)
Notes from the Field (4.6.18)
State of the System: Mid-Minors Pitchers (4.3.20)
Scouting Report Update (5.27.2020)
Video from Pawtucket (8.4.2020)
Video from Pawtucket (8.10.2020)
Scout Chatter (11.19.20)
Scouting Report Update (3.8.2022) |
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