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Physical Description: Very
large pitcher's frame. Wide, mature upper body and filled-out
lower half. Looks all of his listed height and weight. Average
athlete. Height is imposing on the mound. Body will need
maintenance and bears watching as he matures; has already had
problems maintaining his conditioning. How his body develops
will depend on how much work he puts in off the field both
in-season and during the offseason. Came back from Tommy John
surgery in late 2019 in excellent shape, visibly slimmed down,
but returned to the mound in 2020 in noticeably worse shape.
Mechanics: Medium-effort delivery. Throws
from a high three-quarters arm slot. Starts on the third base
side from the wind-up. Starts with his feet close together and
slightly pointed towards the on-deck circle on the first-base
side. Utilizes a high leg lift and is upright and stiff. Hides
the ball briefly when he brings it behind his back and then
again behind his head as he comes forward. Delivery is
inconsistent and has gotten noticeably stiffer as his
athleticism and coordination have regressed. Has trouble getting
his arm in sync with the rest of his delivery. Has a tendency to
open up his front side early while his arm lags behind and comes
through late. When arm is out ahead, will miss up to the glove
side; when it drags behind, tends to miss arm-side.
Fastball: Sits 90-92 mph. Prior to his elbow
injury, would sit 92-94 mph and could dial it up to the 94-96
mph range at times. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, has
yet to consistently show that kind of velocity. When at its
best, the pitch gets on hitters quick and has life. Still needs
to show the ability to hold velocity deeper into games. Has the
potential to sit at higher velocity as he matures. Pitch has
shown swing-and-miss potential, with arm-side run at times and
cut on other occasions. At present, shows potential to develop
into an average offering, but could become an
above-average-to-plus pitch if his pre-surgery form returns.
Curveball: 76-79 mph. Was mostly 79-83 mph
prior to his surgery, but had been as high as 85 pmh and as low
as 75 mph. 1-to-7 shape. At its best, shows depth and late
finish. Has advanced feel for the offering and does a good job
snapping it off. Can throw for strikes or bury down and out of
the zone to induce swinging strikes. Has the potential to be a
big league-quality out pitch. In 2019 return from Tommy John
surgery, may still have been trying to regain feel for the
pitch, as it was more horizontal and slurvy at higher velocities
but retained its longer, more vertical shape at lower
velocities. At its best, shows plus and has the potential to
become a plus-plus offering with improved consistency, but that
he was still trying to regain feel for the pitch a
year-and-a-half after his surgery is concerning.
Changeup: 80-83 mph. In the past was 83-85 mph. Clear
third offering that is still developing. Did not throw much in
high school or in 2016. Began to incorporate it more in 2017 as
a work-in-progress as he tried to develop feel. At times will
show average with late fade. At other times, will show
well-below-average, coming in straight and firm and looking like
a fastball he took something off of. Does not throw with
consistent arm speed. Average potential, but will take some time
to develop. Has not shown much feel or used the pitch often
since his return from surgery.
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Slider: 82-87 mph. New pitch debuted at Fall
Instructional League in 2020. Short, horizontal movement. Showed
decent feel, but release is inconsistent. Has the tendency to
leave over the plate far too often. Still a work in progress. Is
not very effective right now.
Career Notes:
Was ranked by some outlets as the top talent in the 2016 draft
class, but fell due to signability and makeup concerns.
Transferred to IMG Academy in Florida for his junior season but
returned to Barnegat High in New Jersey as a senior and was
later retroactively suspended for an improper transfer, causing
his team to forfeit two games. Committed to Vanderbilt
initially, but commitment changed to Chipola (Fla.) Junior
College the week of the draft. Conflicting reports said either
Vanderbilt pulled his offer or Groome recommitted to potentially
allow him to re-enter draft in 2017; SoxProspects sources have
unanimously confirmed the former. Reportedly agreed to a
pre-draft deal with the San Diego Padres, who had picks number
24 and 25, but Red Sox selected him 12th anyway and signed him
for $457,200 over slot. Red Sox were reportedly unhappy with his
conditioning entering 2017 Spring Training. Suffered an
intercostal strain during his first start of the 2017 season,
causing him to miss two months, then was shut down in mid-August
2017 with forearm soreness. Father was arrested on drug and
weapons charges during 2017 season. Worked out with Chris Sale
in Ft. Myers during the 2017-18 offseason. Was injured in first
spring training start in 2018, leading to May 2018 Tommy John
surgery. Missed the 2018 season and most of 2019. Returned in
August 2019 with a slimmed-down physique, although he had
visibly filled back out in 2020. Pitched at the Alternate
Training Site in 2020 against much older hitters. Participated
in 2016 and 2020 Fall Instructional League. Was added to the
40-man roster during the 2020-21 offseason to protect him from
selection in the Rule 5 Draft despite still having just 66
professional innings pitched.
Summation:
Potential fringe back-end starter, but injury risk and copious
missed development time complicate that projection
significantly. Ceiling is higher, closer to a mid-rotation type.
Has a wide range of outcomes, with a significant gap between his
floor and ceiling. On raw talent and the arsenal he showed prior
to surgery, he could be one of the top prospects in the system.
However, is well behind the development curve due to his lengthy
injury history. Also, stuff has yet to return to pre-surgery
levels. Re-discovering his velocity and the bite and consistency
on his curveball are key for him to retain his prospect value,
as will staying healthy, both to make up for lost development
time and to simply prove he can do so.
Links
Jay Groome video from Lowell (9.2.16)
Scouting Scratch (9.8.16)
Scouting Scratch (9.29.16)
Notes from the Field (3.29.17)
Scouting Scratch - Jay Groome (7.5.17)
Notes from the Field (4.6.18)
State of the System: Mid-Minors Pitchers (4.3.20)
Scouting Report Update (5.27.2020)
Video from Pawtucket (8.4.2020)
Video from Pawtucket (8.10.2020)
Scout Chatter (11.19.20) |
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