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Physical Description: Tall,
athletic frame with some remaining projection. Long limbs, has
room to add muscle. Quick feet.
Mechanics:
Throws from a low three-quarters arm slot. Starts on the
first-base side of the rubber. Some effort in delivery, but
repeats it well. High leg kick. Long swing back and arm is quick
coming forward. Low release height. Consistent release point.
Lands balanced and on-line to the plate. Plus extension. Very
good pickoff move to first base.
Fastball:
92-95 mph. Tops out at 97 mph. Velocity ticked up in 2025 from
the low-90s. Average life. Pitch shows more bat-missing traits
as his velocity has ticked up, but still is fringy in that area.
More a pitch to set up his changeup and generate weak contact.
Average IVB, but has solid arm-side run and plays up due to
flatter VAA and low release height. Above-average command and
control profile. Potential above-average offering.
Changeup: 82-85 mph. Kick-changeup grip. Best
secondary pitch. Has advanced feel and confidence in the pitch
and throws very frequently to hitters on both sides of the
plate. At its best, shows the ability to pull the string on it
and have it fall down and out of the zone, away from righties.
Throws with deceptive arm speed and has good separation from his
fastball. Able to consistently throw it competitively and miss
bats with it. Potential plus offering.
Slider:
84-87 mph. Short cut-slider with horizontal break. Solid feel,
able to land in the zone. Not a major bat-missing pitch, but
rather is designed to generate weak contact and get ahead in the
count. Potential fringe-average offering.
Curveball:
78-81 mph. Thrown with 1-to-7 break and is more vertical than
horizontal. Will get over it and snap some good ones off, but
others are loose and roll to the plate. Effective in sequence
and will show solid bat-missing ability when he can land it
competitively. Potential average offering.
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Sweeper: 80-83 mph. Long, horizontal break. Was
a work in progress in 2024, but got better as the season went on
and development of the pitch was an area of focus during the
2024-25 offseason. Thrown primarily to left-handed hitters. Will
flash bat-missing ability, but needs to find more consistency
with the pitch, as there will be outings where he struggles to
land it in the zone. Potential fringe-average offering.
Career Notes: Attended Army for his first two
seasons, where his team won back-to-back Patriot League titles.
In 2022, was First Team All-Patriot League and voted Patriot
League Pitcher of the Year. Put on 30 pounds the summer before
transferring to Virginia after West Point and focusing on
training for baseball. Third team All-ACC in 2023. Got the start
in the 2025 Spring Breakout game.
Summation:
Potential fourth/fifth starter. Ceiling of a quality third
starter. Durable and has solid pitchability with a wide-ranging
arsenal. Changeup is a legit, MLB-quality out-pitch. Combines
that with four other pitches that he can throw for strikes and
project as fringe-average to above-average. Increased fastball
velocity raises ceiling of that pitch and gives him a solid
compliment to his changeup. Still need to show he can hold
velocity gains deep into starts and continue to develop his
breaking balls, as his slider, curveball and sweeper all flash
potential but can be inconsistent. Two variations of curveball
show more bat-missing ability, but slider has more utility at
this stage in his career. Has the athleticism and
strike-throwing ability teams look for in starting pitching
prospects. Higher-floor, lower-ceiling profile.
Links
Red Sox select Connelly Early with fifth-round pick (7.10.23)
Spring Training Video (3.13.25)
Transaction Analysis: Early Gets the Call (9/9/25) |
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